The Driving Forces behind the Victory of Donald J. Trump

Carla Schmitt


The purpose of this study is to establish how important economic factors are for individual voting behaviour. To that regard the analysis focuses on determining which factors influenced the outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election by considering county level data on several economic and non-economic variables. Individual voting behaviour is thus inferred from county level variation. The results of the analysis suggest that economic factors, especially income and income inequality, have a considerable impact on electoral choice. Further, several non-economic factors are predicted to influence the electoral outcome as well. The magnitude of the effect economic and non-economic variables exhibit is comparable, stressing that economic factors were important determinants of the outcome of the 2016 U.S. presidential election and significantly influence voting behaviour.


Policy Economics, Voting Behaviour, Electoral Choice, US Elections, Donald Trump

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