The impact of voluntary management earnings forecasts on executive compensation contracts
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26481/marble.2016.v2.254Keywords:
Voluntary earnings forecasts, executive compensation, information assymetryAbstract
This study attempts to find a relationship between management earnings forecasts and executive compensation contracts. It focuses on three different elements of management earnings forecasts, namely: the type of forecast, the actual expectation of the forecast and the forecasting frequency. The three relations are analysed through both logistic and linear regressions using a sample of 90 U.S. listed companies between 2006 and 2012. From the analysis, three conclusions can be drawn. First, companies do not always align the measures of their forecasts with the compensation measures used in executive compensation contracts. Second, the target levels used in management earnings forecasts and compensation contracts sometimes differ significantly, depending on the type of measure. Finally, the forecasting frequency of a company does not influence the type of compensation measures used. In general, it appears that earnings forecasts hold some relation to executive compensation contracts. Future research can further investigate this relationship, for example by focusing on the causes of the results or through replicating the analysis.References
Ajinkya, B., Bhojraj, S., & Sengupta, P. (2005). The Association between outside Directors, Institutional Investors and the Properties of Management Earnings Forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research, 43(3), 343-376. doi: 10.2307/3542289
Baginski, S. P., & Hassell, J. M. (1990). The Market Interpretation Of Management Earnings Forecasts. The Accounting Review, 65(1), 175.
Bergman, N. K., & Roychowdhury, S. (2008). Investor sentiment and corporate disclosure. Journal of Accounting Research, 46(5), 1057-1083.
CFA Institute. (2006). Breaking the Short-Term Cycle: Discussion and Recommendations on How Corporate Leaders, Asset Managers, Investors, and Analysts Can Refocus on Long-Term Value. Charlottesville, VA: CFA Institute.
Chen, S. (2004). Why do managers fail to meet their own forecasts? Paper presented at the 14th Annual Conference on Financial Economics and Accounting (FEA).
Coller, M., & Yohn, T. L. (1997). Management Forecasts and Information Asymmetry: An Examination of Bid-Ask Spreads. Journal of Accounting Research, 35(2), 181-191. doi: 10.2307/2491359
Diamond, D. W., & Verrecchia, R. E. (1991). Disclosure, liquidity, and the cost of capital. The journal of Finance, 46(4), 1325-1359.
Donahue, S. M. (2008). Executive compensation: the new executive compensation disclosure rules do not result in complete disclosure. Fordham Journal of Corporate & Financial Law, 13(1), 59.
Frankel, R., McNichols, M., & Wilson, G. P. (1995). Discretionary Disclosure and External Financing. The Accounting Review, 70(1), 135-150. doi: 10.2307/248392
Frantz, P., Instefjord, N., & Walker, M. (2013). Executive Compensation: A Model of Disclosure Choice. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 40(9-10), 1184-1220. doi: 10.1111/jbfa.12041
Gore, P., Pope, P. F., & Singh, A. K. (2007). Earnings management and the distribution of earnings relative to targets: UK evidence. Accounting and business research, 37(2), 123-149. doi: 10.1080/00014788.2007.9730065
Graham, J. R., Harvey, C. R., & Rajgopal, S. (2005). The economic implications of corporate financial reporting. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 40(1), 3-73.
Hassell, J. M., Jennings, R. H., & Lasser, D. J. (1988). Management Earnings Forecasts: Their Usefulness As A Source. The Journal of Financial Research, 11(4), 303.
Hirst, D. E., Koonce, L., & Venkataraman, S. (2007). How disaggregation enhances the credibility of management earnings forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research, 45(4), 811-837. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-679X.2007.00252
Hirst, D. E., Koonce, L., & Venkataraman, S. (2008). Management earnings forecasts: a review and framework. Accounting horizons, 22(3), 315-338. doi: 10.2308/acch.2008.22.3.315
Hutton, A. P., & Stocken, P. C. (2007). Effect of Reputation on the Credibility of Management Forecasts.
Johnson, M. F., Kasznik, R., & Nelson, K. K. (2001). The impact of securities litigation reform on the disclosure of Forward‐Looking information by high technology firms. Journal of Accounting Research, 39(2), 297-327.
Jusoh, R., Ibrahim, D. N., & Zainuddin, Y. (2008). The performance consequence of multiple performance measures usage. International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, 57(2), 119+-136. doi: doi:10.1108/17410400810847393
Karamanou, I., & Vafeas, N. (2005). The Association between Corporate Boards, Audit Committees, and Management Earnings Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis. Journal of Accounting Research, 43(3), 453-486. doi: 10.1111/j.1475-679X.2005.00177.x
Kasznik, R. (1996). On the association between voluntary disclosure and earnings management. Available at SSRN 15062.
Kim, D. S., & Yang, J. (2010). Beating the target: A closer look at annual incentive plans. Unpublished working paper, Indiana University.
Kim, S., & Shin, J. Y. (2014). Executive Bonus Target Ratcheting: Evidence from the New Executive Compensation Disclosure Rule. Available at SSRN 2479111.
King, R., Pownall, G., & Waymire, G. (1990). Expectations adjustment via timely management forecasts: review, synthesis, and suggestions for future research. Journal of Accounting Literature, 9, 113.
Kohn, A. H., & Fisher, J. (2007). The materiality of performance targets. Insights: The Corporate & Securities Law Advisor, 21(10), 2.
König, E. (2012, March 1). Directeur Vestia kreeg 3,5 miljoen euro mee bij vertrek. NRC. Retrieved from http://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2012/03/01/directeur-vestia-kreeg-35-miljoen-euro-mee-bij-vertrek/
Lansford, B., Lev, B., & Tucker, J. W. (2007). Why do firms issue disaggregated earnings guidance? The archival evidence. AAA 2008 Financial Accounting and Reporting Section (FARS).
Longnecker, B., & Krueger, J. (2007). The Next Wave of Compensation Disclosure. Compensation & Benefits Review, 39(1), 50-54. doi: 10.1177/0886368706297432
Marquardt, C. A., & Wiedman, C. I. (1998). Voluntary Disclosure, Information Asymmetry, and Insider Selling through Secondary Equity Offerings*. Contemporary accounting research, 15(4), 505-537. doi: 10.1111/j.1911-3846.1998.tb00569.x
Nagar, V., Nanda, D., & Wysocki, P. (2003). Discretionary disclosure and stock-based incentives. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 34(1–3), 283-309. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0165-4101(02)00075-7
National Investor Relations Institute. (2006). NIRI Issues 2006 Survey Results on Earnings Guidance Practices. Retrieved April 24, 2015, from http://www.niri.org/Other-Content/alerts/ea060406cfm.aspx
Pownall, G., Wasley, C., & Waymire, G. (1993). The Stock Price Effects of Alternative Types of Management Earnings Forecasts. The Accounting Review, 68(4), 896-912. doi: 10.2307/248512
Rogers, J. L., & Stocken, P. C. (2005). Credibility of Management Forecasts. The Accounting Review, 80(4), 1233-1260. doi: 10.2307/4093123
Thompson, M. (2013). HSBC CEO made $11 million in scandal-hit year. CNNMoney. Retrieved from http://money.cnn.com/2013/03/04/news/companies/hsbc-ceo-pay/
UCLA: Statistical Consulting Group. (n.d.). How do I interpret a regression model when some variables are log transformed? Retrieved June, 2015, from http://www.ats.ucla.edu/stat/mult_pkg/faq/general/log_transformed_regression.htm
v.d. Hulst, A. (2015, March 20). Ook ABN-Amro verhoogt de salarissen van de bestuurders. NRC. Retrieved from http://www.nrc.nl/carriere/2015/03/20/ook-abn-amro-verhoogt-de-salarissen-voor-de-bestuurders/
Weiner, N., & Mahoney, T. A. (1981). A model of corporate performance as a function of environmental, organizational, and leadership influences. Academy of Management Journal, 24(3), 453-470.
Yhim, H.-p., Karim, K. E., & Rutledge, R. W. (2003). The association between disclosure level and information quality: voluntary management earnings forecasts. Applied Financial Economics, 13(9), 677-692. doi: 10.1080/09603100210138538