Mortality Modelling and Forecasting using Cross-Validation Techniques


  • Wouter van Wel Maastricht University



This paper investigates how accurately several predictive models perform in the field of mortallity modelling and forecasting, using cross-validation techniques. The main models used in this paper are the well-known Lee-Carter model and the Heligman-Pollard model. Furthermore, some extensions will be investigated: a distinction between the male and female population, extension to a few other countries, the effects of increasing the size of the ''training set'' and forecasting without re-estimating k_t for the Lee-Carter model and a weighted estimation for the Heligman-Pollard model.


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