Ethnic Group Representativeness and the Effect on Political Conflict
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26481/marble.2015.v2.94Abstract
Abstract. This paper looks at the relationship between the underrepresentation of ethnicminority groups in governments and the effect on violence and conflict that is initiated by
these groups. Ethnic minority groups that are underrepresented in political decision-making
are likely to express their opinions outside of the political routine, by means of conflict. Three
potential determinants of representation are analyzed. An increase in the effective number of
parliamentary parties is expected to lead to more ethnic groups being represented and thus to a
decrease in conflict. A more proportional electoral system or electoral type should lead to
more parties in parliament and to a more proportionate depiction of society, thus including
ethnic minority groups more adequately and decreasing conflict. An increase in the share of
seats of parties classified as ethnic relative to the share of the population held by ethnic
groups, the share ratio, yields more proportional representation and should therefore also
result in less conflict. Empirical analysis of a sample of 52 countries consistently supports the
predictions regarding the share ratio, while the rest of the theory cannot be supported reliably.
The results should be evaluated with caution due to an apparent mismatch between ethnic
groups and ethnic parties.
References
Adams, J. (1776). Thoughts on government. Raleigh, NC: Hayes Barton Press.
Armingeon, K., Careja, R., Knöpfel, L., Weisstanner, D., Engler, S., Potolidis, P., Gerber, M. (2013). Comparative Political Data Set I, II & III. Bern: Institute of Political Science, University of Bern.
Alonso, S., & Ruiz‐Rufino, R. (2007). Political representation and ethnic conflict in new democracies. European Journal of Political Research, 46(2), 237-267.
Bates, R. H. (2001). Prosperity and violence: the political economy of development. New York: WW Norton.
Busse, M., & Hefeker, C. (2007). Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment. European Journal of political economy, 23(2), 397-415.
Duverger, M., North, B., & North, R. (1954). Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State: Translated by Barbara and Robert North. London: Methuen Publishing Ltd.
The Economist (2011). Springtime for them too? The Berbers join the Arab Revolt. Retrieved from http://www.economist.com/node/21525925
Freedom House (2014). Country ratings and status, FIW 1973-2014. Retrieved on 30/05/14 from http://www.freedomhouse.org/report-types/freedom-world#.U5sN1ih9mXN
Htun, M. (2004). Is gender like ethnicity? The political representation of identity groups. Perspectives on Politics, 2(03), 439-458.
International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (2010). Voter Turnout Database. Retrieved on 12/05/14 from http://www.idea.int/vt/viewdata.cfm on
International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (2014). Table of Electoral Systems Worldwide. Retrieved on 02/05/14 from http://www.idea.int/esd/world.cfm
Laakso, M., & Taagepera, R. (1979). Effective number of parties: A measure with application to West Europe. Comparative political studies, 12(1), 3-27.
Lane, J. E., McKay, D.H. & Newton, K. (1997). Political Data Handbook OECD Countries. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Lijphart, A. (1990). The political consequences of electoral laws, 1945-85. American Political Science Review, 84(2), 481-496.
Lijphart, A. (2012). Patterns of democracy: Government forms and performance in thirty-six countries. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Matland, R. E., & Studlar, D. T. (1996). The contagion of women candidates in single-member district and proportional representation electoral systems: Canada and Norway. The journal of politics, 58(03), 707-733.
Minorities at Risk Project. (2009) Minorities at Risk Dataset. College Park, MD: Center for International Development and Conflict Management. Retrieved on 01/05/14 from http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/mar/
Mueller, D. (2003). Public Choice III. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press
Neto, O. A., & Cox, G. W. (1997). Electoral institutions, cleavage structures, and the number of parties. American Journal of Political Science, 41(1), 149-174.
North, D. C., Wallis, J. J., & Weingast, B. R. (2009). Violence and social orders: a conceptual framework for interpreting recorded human history. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Powell Jr, G. B. (1981). Party systems and political system performance: voting participation, government stability and mass violence in contemporary democracies. The American Political Science Review, 75(4), 861-879.
Powell Jr, G. B. (1982). Contemporary democracies. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Powell Jr, G. B. (2004). Political representation in comparative politics. Annual Review of Political Science, 7, 273-296.
Shugart, M., & Wattenberg, M. P. (Eds.). (2001). Mixed-Member Electoral Systems: The Best of Both Worlds?. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
State Statistic Committee of Ukraine (2004). First All-National Population Census: historical, methodological, social, economic, ethnic aspects. Retrieved on 03/05/14 from: http://2001.ukrcensus.gov.ua/eng/publications/
Taagepera, R., & Shugart, M. S. (1989). Seats and votes: The effects and determinants of electoral systems. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
Therolf, G. and Sandels, A. (2011, April 7). Minority Syria Kurds join protest, get concessions. San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved from http://archive.today/0ALr#selection-1737.0-1737.50
Worldbank (2014a). GDP per capita, PPP (current international $). Retrieved on 25/05/14 from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD
Worldbank (2014b). Net migration. Retrieved on 30/05/14 from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SM.POP.NETM
