Vol. 4 (2015): Regulating Innovation, Trade and Uncertain Risks
Due to experiences such as the Chernobyl disaster, the asbestos tragedy, various food
scandals and comparable experiences, in modern times technology-based innovation
is often associated with risks that are highly uncertain. In other words, there are
suspicions about potential hazards to human health or the environment for which there
is no scientific proof, but which cannot be fully refuted either (Van Asselt & Vos 2006).
Following scandals such as the BSE crisis where uncertain risks were initially ignored and
governments and experts attempted to reassure the public with zero risk statements, the
current societal climate in which innovation takes place can be characterized as ‘posttrust’
(Löfstedt 2005).
Technology-based innovation poses significant challenges to regulators. In the early
stages of the innovation process, when technology could be controlled relatively easily,
one does not know enough about harmful consequences to issue regulation, whilst at a
later stage, by the time consequences are apparent, control by regulation is expensive and
drastic. This dilemma is referred to as the Collingridge dilemma of control of technology
(Collingridge 1980). Furthermore, research into health and environmental impacts usually
lags behind: by the time first insights are available, the research is already outdated
because new generations of the technologies are already available (Harremoës et al. 2002)
Regulators are foremost confronted with the obstacles to innovation in the context
of trade: the free circulation of innovative products may be blocked by states or trade
blocks for reasons of protection of human or environmental health. Controversies
about innovation and uncertain risks therefore often have trade consequences. Many
of the complex cases that challenge the EU or the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in
their ambition for further market integration pertain to conflicts about innovation and
uncertain risks (Prévost 2014). The question often is how to allow free trade while at the
same time ensuring that the protection of human and environmental health is duly taken
into consideration. Trade conflicts concerning genetically modified organisms (GMOs) and
hormones in beef are iconic examples.
